Bloomberg/Niall Ferguson/3-9-2022
“Unlike hurricanes and auto accidents, to which we can at least attach probabilities, the biggest disasters (pandemics and wars) follow power-law or random distributions. They belong in the realm of uncertainty, or what Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his book ‘The Black Swan,’ calls ‘Extremistan.’ They are like tsunamis, not tides.”
USAGOLD note: Ferguson begins the process of dissecting what happened in Ukraine and offers seven educated guesses as to what might happen next. Needless to say, how all of this plays out will have a significant impact on financial markets and individual portfolios, so considering the potential scenarios as laid out by a noted historian in detail is well worth the time spent.
