Consumer credit numbers via the Fed’s G.19 Report came out last Friday.
The increase in $52.43 billion was the biggest jump in history by far. And most of it was credit card spending.
ZeroHedge commented Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Everyone Is Maxing Out Their Credit Card Ahead Of The Recession
His take was essentially my first reaction. Consumers exhausted their savings from three rounds of fiscal stimulus.
Consumer Credit Annualized Percent Change
On a percentage basis, revolving consumer credit jumped by 35.31%
Nonrevolving Consumer Credit
Non-revolving consumer credit, primarily mortgages, did not blink an eye through the entire Covid period.
Revolving Consumer Credit
That’s the chart that gives room to pause. Despite massive jumps revolving debt has still not exceeded the pre-pandemic levels.
It appears consumers used Covid stimulus to pay down credit cards and now are running up credit card debt at a record pace.
This rate of growth is not sustainable to say the least.
A recession is assured.
Which One Of These Does Not Fit In ?
- S&P earnings estimates for 2022(e) have increased from $200.03 to $226.62 and 2023(e) have gone from $246.79 to $248.30. Earnings estimates jump 9.75% vs 2022.
- Fed hiking at the fastest pace since the 1980s
- CPI up 8.5% from a year ago
- 30-year mortgage rate 5.41% vs 3.12% a year ago.
- Just in time manufacturing morphs into supply hoarding
- War in Ukraine disrupting shipping channels
- European energy crunch
- Falling stock market
- Demand Destruction
For discussion, please see S&P 500 Earnings Estimates for 2023 Rise, It Won’t Happen
Also note An Official Denial Suggests Stagflation is Now the Base Case for Europe
ECB’s President Christine Lagarde says “Stagflation Isn’t the Base Case.” I suggest that should just about seal it. Include the US as well.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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