Expect a Deep Recession to Start This Quarter or Early Third Quarter – Mish Talk

The GDPNow Forecast was at 2.5 percent on the May 17 retail sales report. It’s now 1.3 percent and falling fast. 

This snip is from June 1. 

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on June 1, down from 1.9 percent on May 27. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 4.7 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and -8.2 percent, respectively.