Recession Watch Update, Where Do Things Stand After the Huge Fed Hike? – Mish Talk

Many people noted the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model fell to zero growth for the second quarter of 2022. 

Given the first quarter was was negative are we in recession? Not so fast. Lots of things are in play, but the most important of which is Real Final Sales. 

It’s real (inflation adjusted) sales that drives GDP so the headline number is essentially useless. The GDPNow estimate of Real Final Sales plunged 0.8 percentage points today but is still, for now, a healthy 1.7 percent. 

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