GDPNow Forecast Inches Up to 0.3 Percent, But What’s On the Way? – Mish Talk

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model was on updated June 27. The previous release was June 16. The intermediate points and movements in the chart above were just updated today. 

Key Points 

  • Real Final Sales (RFS) is the true bottom line forecast of the economy. 
  • The difference between GDP and RFS is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time.
  • RFS is 1.7 percent, unchanged since June 26. 
  • Base GDP is up to 0.3 percent from June 26, a meaningless rise in size but more importantly because RFS is the number to watch.

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