US inflation surge signals tough times ahead

Financial Times/Mohamed El-Erian/7-13-2022

cartoon showing a boat riding the rising tide

“This level of inflation will come as a shock to many, especially those who have been falsely comforted by a US Federal Reserve narrative that, from day one of this inflation episode, has failed to understand the dynamics in play, grasp the seriousness of what’s ahead, and act promptly and decisively to avoid undue harm to so many.”

USAGOLD note: In other words, it is time to put aside the Fed nostrums and accept the fact that inflation is for real and that it is going to be with us for a while. El-Erian continues to be one of the Fed’s staunchest critics and thus far he has been pretty much ahead of the crowd on policy implications. Now he says inflation might moderate over the next three months (we’re skeptical) but that “it would be foolish to dismiss the chance of a third wave of inflationary pressures” down the road. The June inflation numbers, he says, are “indicative of rough seas ahead.” If El-Erian is right, a sturdy, seaworthy ship will be a requirement.

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