Based on Analysis of the Final Q2 GDPNow, a Recession Started in May – Mish Talk

Tomorrow, the BEA releases its preliminary (advance) estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2022.

The above chart shows how the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model sees things. 

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.2 percent on July 27, up from -1.6 percent on July 19. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -2.50 percentage points to -2.30 percentage points, while the the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.18 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points.



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