Atlanta Fed Cuts Q3 GDP Estimate To Just +0.3% After Housing Data

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is just 0.3 percent now, down from 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.4 percent on September 7, and down from 2.6 percent on September 1.

After this morning’s housing starts and permits report from the US Census Bureau, The Atlanta Fed cut its nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.

Not a major surprise…

Odds tomorrow’s Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP update is below zero? Last one was 0.5% on Sept 15 at. Since then we had UMich and NAHB misses and tomorrow we will have Housing starts and permits, which will be a bloodbath

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 19, 2022

That follows drop in the growth outlook from downward revisions to July retail sales data and weakness in the control group weighed on growth in Q3 with weak import and export prices, as well as disappointing industrial production and capacity utilization numbers also dragging down estimates.

So to summarize – we are just 0.3% away from a 3rd negative quarterly GDP print with only ten days left in the quarter… and excluding the +0.34% growth in government spending, Q3 GDP growth would be negative.

Finally, remember, it’s not a “recession”, it’s a “special economic operation”