US Mortgage Rates Drop Below 7% in Biggest Decline Since July (But MBA Purchase Applications Drop -9.52% WoW, Refi Apps Drop -11.44%) – Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders

US mortgage rates fell last week by the most since the end of July, slipping below 7% and helping generate a bounce in purchase applications that otherwise remain depressed, but only in the Seasonally Adjusted data. The NON-Seasonally Adjusted data show a hefty decline.

The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage decreased 24 basis points to 6.9% in the week ended Nov. 11, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. The group’s index of applications to buy a home rose 4.4% — the most since June — but is still near the weakest level since 2015. 

But the bounce was in Seasonally Adjusted data only. The NON-seasonally adjusted data remained depressed.

Mortgage applications decreased -10.0 percent SA from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Veterans Day.

The Refinance Index decreased -11.44% percent from the previous week and was 88 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased -10 percent compared with the previous week and was 46 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Mortgage purchase applications will continue to fall in NSA terms since it is the Winter and home buying season won’t really start until January. Refinancing applications actually dropped -11.44% even with the drop in mortgage rates.

The data. As my former students know, I like the “raw” data, better known as NON-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data and avoid seasonally-adjusted data (SA) since it hides what is going on.

And on The Fed Futures Front, The Federal Reserve is still looking a hiking their target rate from 4% to just under 5%.