Fear The Talking Fed! Fed Likely To Pause Tightening Despite Being Only Half Way Home (3.7% Unemployment Implies Target Rate Of 10.12% Versus 5.25% Rate, Fed Balance Sheet Still At > $8 TRILLION) – Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders

Don’t kid yourself. The talking heads at The Federal Reserve (more like Feral Reserve) are only about halfway there in terms of rate hikes. There is still over $8 trillion in monetary stimulus sloshing around the economy.

The Taylor Rule implies a target rate of 10.12% while the current target rate is just over half that rate at 5.25%. A little over halfway there and The Fed is likely to pause rate hikes.

Of course, Yellen and Powell think The Taylor Rule is a pork roll product from Trenton, New Jersey.

Fear the talking Fed!