True inflation may have peaked in late 2022 — at 18% — and still hovers around 8%
“Consumer borrowing costs in the U.S. have skyrocketed, but the CPI doesn’t count this. ” There are widely divergent perspectives between Wall Street, where exuberance...
Inflation is falling but interest rates are going to stay higher for longer. Way longer.
Even with the recent partial retreat in long-term real and nominal interest rates, they remain well above the ultra-low levels to which policymakers had grown...
U.S. fiscal deficit a ‘more serious problem than ever before,’ says Larry Summers
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers believes that the current federal budget deficit poses a greater challenge for the economy than it has before in U.S....
Is there a subprime credit-card crisis on the horizon?
Subprime consumers are falling behind on their credit-card bills. From Generation Z and millennials to Generation X and baby boomers, credit-card delinquency rates have been...
‘We are buyers of gold on weakness’: Yellow metal resilient as real rates surge, says Morgan Stanley
Gold appears resilient amid the recent surge in real interest rates, presenting a buying opportunity over the intermediate term, according to Morgan Stanley’s wealth-management business....
U.S. retail sales barely rise, pointing to weak spots in the economy
The numbers: Sales at retailers rose a tepid 0.2% in June, reflecting a shift in consumer spending habits and signaling softness in some parts of...
Gold should be dead, but somehow it’s still adding value
Why isn’t gold dead yet? It hasn’t served a vital economic function since the government stopped treating it as money back in 1971. Actually, you...
Opinion: The Fed says don’t worry about U.S. banks, but why should anyone believe them?
The aftershocks of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), while seemingly fading, are still reverberating around the world. Although Federal Reserve officials have taken...
Fed’s Bullard doesn’t see a looming credit crunch that would push economy into a recession
In the wake of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, conventional wisdom has been that banks will cut lending, known as a credit crunch, that...
Opinion: ‘Most U.S. banks are technically near insolvency, and hundreds are already fully insolvent,’ Roubini says
In January 2022, when yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.511% were still roughly 1% and those on German Bunds were -0.5%, I warned that inflation would be bad...