How Long is the Lag Between Fed Rate Hikes and Real World Activity? – Mish Talk
How Long the Lag? Waller’s View How Quickly Will Rate Increases Slow Economy? The Wall Street Journal reports Fed’s Interest-Rate Strategy in 2023 Hinges on...
Why Do We Have Reduced Participation in a Labor Shortage Environment? – Mish Talk
Labor force participation rates from the BLS, chart by Mish Participation Rate Chart Notes The Labor Force Participation Rate is the calculated as the labor...
What Do Initial and Continued Claims Suggest About Timing of a Recession? – Mish Talk
Initial and continued unemployment claims data from the BLS, months calculation by Mish Current data is easily within a timeframe that recession may have started....
The Biggest Collapse in M2 Money Supply Since the Great Depression – Mish Talk
M1 and M2 numbers are from the Fed, ODL is a derivative of M2, described below. Data for the above chart is from the Fed’s...
White House Approves Sending 31 Abrams Tanks to Ukraine Against Pentagon Advice – Mish Talk
“Today I am announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine. [Defense] Secretary [Lloyd] Austin has recommended this step because...
The Case for Stagflation: US Composite PMI Shows Wage Pressures Persist – Mish Talk
S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows Private sector contraction in the US continues into the new year, with renewed...
Alice Debates the Mad Hatter and the Red Queen on Timing the Recession – Mish Talk
Setting the Stage for a Debate While traveling through Wonderland, Alice met Humpty Dumpty. He was reading the dictionary that he wrote. Alice asked Humpty...
Recession Watch: The Yield Curve is the Most Inverted Since the Early 1980s – Mish Talk
Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, chart by Mish On the dismal retail sales report on Wednesday, the yield curve steepened towards deeper inversions....
December Was Another Retail Sales Disaster, Even Worse With Negative Revisions – Mish Talk
Retail sales from commerce department, chart by Mish Advance Retail Sales Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for November. Advance estimates of...
Bank Earnings Start Off With a Thud, Expect Things Will Get Worse – Mish Talk
Biggest Earnings Miss in a Decade Big Misses Everywhere What About the Inverse Cramer Idea? Are Markets Really Prepared For Higher Rates? Earnings Headed For...