Conference Board Confidence Slips To 5-Month Low As ‘Hope’ Fades

Following January’s dip (after 3 months of modest rebounds), The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey was expected to weaken further in February amid ongoing Omicron restrictions and higher-and-higher consumer prices.

Analysts were right in direction – January Conf Board fell from 111.1 (revised significantly lower from 113.8) to 110.5 (which was very slightly above the 110.0 expectations) – a five-month low. The sub-indices were mixed with ‘present situation’ confidence rising to 145.1 vs. 144.5 last month (but that was dramatically revised lower from the initial 148.2 print). Consumer confidence expectations fell to 87.5 vs. 88.8 last month (also revised notably lower from an initial 90.8 print)

Source: Bloomberg

The share of consumers who said jobs were “plentiful” relative to “hard to get” fell slightly in February, but continues to hover very close to its record highs in 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, inflation expectations bounced back higher in February, back near 13-year highs at 7.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

So Powell and his pals face weakening sentiment but worrisome inflation. Not a fun place to be hiking rates…