Initial Jobless Claims Soars To Highest Since Nov 2021

Following the very mixed message from last Friday’s jobs data, this morning’s initial claims data was definitelky worse – with 244k Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. That is the highest since November 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

There was a big jump in unadjusted continuing claims across all programs…

The unexpectedly large rise in claims was driven a surge in New York (vaccine mandate related?)

This ongoing surge in jobless claims fits much more with the narrative being told by ISM Manufacturing and Services surveys…

Still think the economy is strong enough to withstand a 100bps hike next week?