The Alchemist/Adrian Ash/October 2022
“Tail wagging dog? Perhaps. But while solving the mystery of gold pricing may continue to defy a quick sound bite analysis, and while the size of investment plus speculative flows doesn’t show any kind of consistent relationship to the size of price swings, it’s plain that the behaviour of gold ETF investors and Comex speculators, although marginal to physical demand across longer time frames, tends to map if not drive the market’s direction.”
USAGOLD note: Ash runs through the gamut of influences on the gold price and lands at the place described above. However, he leaves a step yet to be taken. What, in turn, influences the flow in and out of ETF and COMEX positions? Too often, in our view, it is a matter of crowd behavior more than a fundamental shift based on sound reasoning. That is why when the market turns in a meaningful way, so many are at a loss to explain why. The best way for the private investor to capitalize on that shift (when, not if, it comes) is to be well-positioned ahead of its inception.
