Here is a follow-up on last week’s chart with some excellent granular detail.
Interest payments on the national debt during the current fiscal year (October to February) are up 29 percent y/y, one of the fastest-growing expenditure components of the Federal budget (see table).
Revenues are down, especially individual income taxes, which may reflect the slowing economy. Theory dictates (ceteris paribus) that government tax revenues should be rising with inflation, however. Hmmm.
The fact income tax receipts are lower but self-employment tax revenues (1099 employees) are higher, coupled with what is happening with the employment data, can we hypothesize that high income earners are leaving the workforce (or getting fired) and starting their own businesses, such as consultants, for example? Or could it be just a timing issue?
The overall deficit is exploding, btw, up 50 percent.
If the current situation normalizes and Treasury securities lose their flight-to-quality bid, interest rates are going to spike faster than one of Elon’s rockets.
