XAU/USD can outperform at the end of Fed tightening cycle – OCBC

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Economists at OCBC Bank maintain a constructive outlook on Gold prices. 

Risk of another 1-2 more Fed rate hikes can dim the appeal of Gold in the near term

Near term, the risk of another 1-2 more Fed rate hikes can dim the appeal of Gold but to put in perspective, the Fed is closer to end of tightening cycle. Historically, Gold prices can outperform at the end of Fed tightening cycle.

While opportunity cost of holding Gold has risen, we reckon it should not be long before real yields ease lower at some stage. This can be supportive of Gold prices. 

We also favour long Gold as a risk-off hedge (safe haven proxy) against slowing global growth or any risk-off market event like the US banking turmoil that saw a surge in Gold prices.

Gold Forecast: 3Q23 2,030 4Q23 2,050 1Q24 2,050.