XAU/USD to rise if US core inflation falls below 5% – Commerzbank

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Gold price up slightly in wake of US labour market data. Attention will now be focused on the US consumer price data that are due to be published on Wednesday. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how XAU/USD could react to the US CPI report.

Focus now on inflation figures

The headline rate of inflation is likely to fall significantly to 3.1% on account of a base effect. The last time it was any lower was in March 2021. Though the core inflation rate, which is more relevant to monetary policy, is set to drop to 5.0%, this would still be more than two times above the target. This also underlines the need for further monetary policy tightening. 

The core rate would presumably need to fall below 5% for the Gold price to gain in response to the data.

See – US CPI Banks Preview: Inflation to step meaningfully lower in June