Initial Jobless Claims Jumped Last Week Led By Ohio

The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time rose from 227k to 248k last week (both SA and NSA jumped)…

Source: Bloomberg

Ohio saw the largest jump in initial claims by far (see below) followed by California and Texas. Missouri saw the biggest decline in claims…

Which is important since, as a reminder, Goldman highlights that two distortions that likely boosted initial claims over the last few months—potentially fraudulent filings in Ohio and expanded eligibility for unemployment insurance in Minnesota—appeared to intensify in today’s report. 

Those two states accounted for 35k initial claims (vs. 28k in the prior week and 14k in late May; SA by GS). After adjusting for those distortions, initial claims still increased week-over-week (+14k) though remained near the lower end of the range seen between March and July. 

Bewilderingly, continuing claims continue their trend lower, back near 2023 lows at 1.68mm Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as Goldman also points out, ongoing seasonal distortions have likely weighed on continuing claims over the last few months, and we estimate they could exert a cumulative drag on the level of continuing claims of 375k between April and September.

So more of the same, all indications suggest a strong labor market entirely dislocated from The Fed’s tightening moves.