Un-Adjusted Jobless Claims Plunge To Lowest Since Oct 2022, Despite Surge In Hawaii

The number of Americans that filed for jobless claims for the first time last week fell to 230k last week (from 240k). On an NSA basis, claims dropped below 200k (198k to be exact) – the lowest since Oct 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the data is fascinating with Hawaii suffering a surge in initial claims (Maui fire) and it appears the fraud in Ohio is finally being corrected…

As we detailed previously, Goldman highlights that two distortions that likely boosted initial claims over the last few months – potentially fraudulent filings in Ohio and expanded eligibility for unemployment insurance in Minnesota – appeared to persist in today’s report.

Those two states accounted for 28k initial claims (vs. 29k in the prior week and 14k in late May; SA by GS). After adjusting for those distortions, initial claims remained near levels last seen in January.

Continuing claims continues to hover just above 1.7mm…

Source: Bloomberg

However, as Goldman also points out, ongoing seasonal distortions have likely weighed on continuing claims over the last few months, and we estimate they could exert a cumulative drag on the level of continuing claims of 375k between April and September.

So more of the same, all indications suggest a strong labor market entirely dislocated from The Fed’s tightening moves.