Initial Jobless Claims Drops To 12-Month Lows

September 28, 2023

Initial jobless claims hovered just above 200k (204k to be exact) for the second week in a row (well below the 215k exp) but the non-seasonally-adjusted claims data printed at 175 – its lowest since Sept 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The distortions in initial claims – from Ohio fraud to Minnesota extensions – appear to have largely been ‘fixed’…

Source: Bloomberg

Though we note that Ohio saw claims jump significantly, only outdone by California…

Continuing claims remain well below 1.7mm…

Source: Bloomberg

Crucially,. however, as Goldman Sachs believes that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.

Finally, we wonder just what is going on with the claims data when The Conference Board survey is signaling the labor market is worsening significantly and financial conditions are tightening aggressively…