Jobless Claims Hovers Near 2023 Lows Despite ADP Weakness

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time remains at year-to-date lows at 207k last week (basically in line with the 205k the prior week). Un-adjusted initial claims declined to 172k, the lowest since Oct 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Ohio claims fell once again, back to a more normalized level as their massive fraud has now been ‘fixed’…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims remains well below the Maginot Line of 1.7mm Americans. (sliding to 1.664mm last week), also at year-to-date lows…

Source: Bloomberg

With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between the end of September and March.

Finally, one doe have to wonder just what world we are living in when ADP (and BLS) jobs data has been trending weaker over the last few months, and yet initial jobless claims has been trending not just stronger, but towards its strongest on record…

Source: Bloomberg

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