Fed Rate Cuts Are Likely Soon, Even Without a U.S. Recession. Here’s Why.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may say it’s still too early for him to talk about interest-rate cuts. As Louis-Vincent Gave from Gavekal Research put it in a note Tuesday: “Rate hikes are like tequila shots: one never knows when one’s had enough until one’s had too much.” Goldman Sachs, which has been more optimistic about the economy than most, doesn’t see rates dropping that far—but it still sees them getting below 4%.