UMich Inflation Expectations Continued Soaring In November

UMich inflation expectations rose even further intra-month, jumping from 4.4% to 4.5% final (for 1Y inflation outlook) and from 3.1 to 3.2% final (for 5-10Y outlook)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the highest medium-term inflation expectation since 2011.

Despite easing prices ate the pump, for some consumers, food and gas prices continue to weigh heavily on their economic views; about 18% of consumers spontaneously mentioned food prices, and about 17% referenced gas prices.

These concerns pass through to inflation expectations; those who alluded to food or gas prices held year-ahead inflation expectations of over 5%, considerably higher than other consumers.

More-favorable current assessments and expectations of personal finances were offset by a notable deterioration in expected business conditions. In particular, long-run business conditions plunged by 15% to its lowest since July 2022.

Source: Bloomberg

Buying conditions weakened for all segments, most notably Large Household Durables reversed…

Source: Bloomberg

Younger and middle-aged consumers exhibited strong declines in economic attitudes this month, while sentiment of those age 55 and older improved from October.