Goldman Sachs 2700, Bank of America 3000, and UBS 4000!

既无法按照美联储政策逻辑解释，央行购金也无法合理化金价历史新高，同时金价大涨还与黄金ETF流出相背，推动反弹的“神秘力量”令分析师困惑不已。

传统宏观因素已无法充分解释金价上涨速度和幅度，尽管市场预期美联储降息幅度减少、经济增长趋于强劲且股市创纪录，但金价仍在过去两个月上涨 20%。

事实上，自2022年中期以来，金价的大部分上涨是由新的增量因素“恐惧”推动的，包括对货币体系难以维持的“恐惧”、新兴市场央行对货币贬值的恐惧、对美国财政可持续性以及大选的“恐惧”。

对货币体系难以维持的“恐惧”：这一恐惧是结构性的，市场对美元支持的国际货币体系的信心受到挑战。像最近一段时期黄金和实际利率一起上涨，表明风险偏好明显转向实物资产，市场对金融体系信心收到挑战。

新兴市场央行对货币贬值的恐惧：新兴市场央行加速黄金积累的是对地缘政治和货币贬值的担忧，而直接持有黄金的偏好又进一步加剧了这种担忧。

此外，美国财政可持续性担忧，加上选举周期带来的尾部风险，可以被视为酝酿结构性恐惧的另一个特征，对黄金购买产生积极影响。

尽管降息尚未到来，但在各国央行需求、美国财政状况和地缘政治形势的推动下，黄金将继续表现优异。

黄金和白银受到各国央行、中国投资者以及越来越多的西方买家的推动。宏观因素利好金银，其中包括美联储年内将要降息，一旦降息落实，黄金购买应该会扩大，可能会进一步推高黄金价格。

但一些传统的支撑因素表现疲软，金价与实物支持的ETF的正向关系已经破裂。

实物支持的ETF资产管理规模一直在下降，大部分资金外流都是由投资顾问（通常是散户投资者的代理人）清算推动的。同样的，机构方面净商业期货头寸也远低于近年来的高点。

白银也能从中受益，工业需求走强也将提振了银价，未来12个月内或升至30美元/盎司以上。

最近金价的飙升让我联想到一句名言：“几十年什么都没有发生，然后是几周内发生了几十年的事。”

历史数据表明，金价可能会长期处于低迷状态，但一旦突破，涨势往往会迅猛而激烈。

金价在2007年爆发，用了27年时间才重回1980年的高点。最近，金价在2024年3月突破新高，花了13年时间才重回2011年的高点。

当金价爆发时，两年内大幅飙升4倍（1972-74 年和1978-80年），三年内（2008-11 年）飙升2倍。

投资者在决定是否追涨或回避最近的金价上涨时，可以参考过去的行情来获得启发，这里我将“突破”定义为金价比之前历史峰值高出10%。

如果历史重演，参与这次黄金反弹还为时不晚，持有2-3年期的投资者可能会看到金价翻一番，涨至4000美元以上。

止盈信号的信号是实际利率转负和出现全面衰退。由于目前实际利率仍处于高位，且衰退似乎遥遥无期，因此现在宣布金价上涨结束还为时尚早。

It is impossible to explain it according to the Federal Reserve’s policy logic, and the central bank is unable to rationalize the record high of gold prices. At the same time, the sharp rise in gold prices is also contrary to the outflow of gold ETFs. The “mysterious force” driving the rebound has left analysts very puzzled.

Traditional macroeconomic factors can no longer fully explain the speed and magnitude of the rise in gold prices. Although the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates less, economic growth will be strong, and the stock market will set a record, the price of gold has risen 20% in the past two months.

In fact, since mid-2022, most of the rise in gold prices has been driven by new incremental factors, “fear,” including “fear” that the monetary system will be difficult to maintain, fear of currency depreciation by emerging market central banks, and “fear” about US fiscal sustainability and the general election.

“Fear” that the monetary system is difficult to maintain: This fear is structural, and the market’s confidence in an international monetary system supported by the US dollar is being challenged. For example, gold has risen along with real interest rates in the recent period, indicating a clear shift in risk appetite to real assets, and market confidence in the financial system is being challenged.

Emerging market central banks’ fear of currency depreciation: Emerging market central banks are fueling the accumulation of gold by concerns about geopolitics and currency depreciation, and the preference for direct gold holding is further exacerbating this concern.

Furthermore, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, combined with end-of-line risks brought about by the election cycle, can be seen as another characteristic of fostering structural fears, which have a positive impact on gold purchases.

Although interest rate cuts are yet to arrive, gold will continue to perform well, driven by central bank demand, US fiscal conditions, and geopolitical conditions.

Gold and silver are being promoted by central banks, Chinese investors, and a growing number of Western buyers. Macroeconomic factors are favorable to gold and silver, including that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during the year. Once interest rate cuts are implemented, gold purchases should expand, which may further push up the price of gold.

However, the performance of some traditional supporting factors has weakened, and the positive relationship between gold prices and physically supported ETFs has broken down.

The scale of asset management for physically supported ETFs has been declining, and most outflows are driven by the liquidation of investment advisors (usually agents of retail investors). Similarly, net institutional commercial futures positions are also far below recent highs.

Silver can also benefit from this, and stronger industrial demand will also boost the price of silver, which may rise above $30 per ounce in the next 12 months.

The recent surge in gold prices reminds me of a famous saying: “Nothing happened for decades, then decades of things happened within a few weeks.”

Historical data shows that the price of gold may be sluggish for a long time, but once it breaks through, the rise will often be rapid and intense.

The price of gold exploded in 2007, and it took 27 years to return to its 1980 high. Recently, the price of gold broke through a new high in March 2024, and it took 13 years to return to its 2011 high.

When the price of gold exploded, it surged sharply by 4 times in 2 years (1972-74 and 1978-80) and 2 times within 3 years (2008-11).

Investors can refer to past market prices for inspiration when deciding whether to pursue or avoid the recent rise in gold prices. Here, I define a “breakthrough” as the price of gold being 10% higher than the previous historical peak.

If history repeats itself, it’s not too late to participate in this gold rebound. Investors holding 2-3 years may see the price of gold double to more than 4,000 US dollars.

The signal for take-profit signals is a negative real interest rate turn negative and an overall recession. Since real interest rates are still high and the recession seems far away, it is still too early to announce the end of the rise in gold prices.