GDPNow Forecast Rises to 2.7 Percent Annualized Despite Weak Economic Data – Mish Talk
GDPNow data from Atlanta Fed, Chart by Mish I was pretty sure a miserable constriction spending would weigh on today’s GDPNow report, but nope. The...
The Market Expects Another Three-Quarter Point Interest Hike in November, Then What? – Mish Talk
Rate hike odds from CME Fedwatch According to CME Fedwatch the odds of sharper increases in Fed rate hikes has dramatically accelerated in the last...
Job Openings Decline by Over a Million, But What Does It Mean? – Mish Talk
The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report for August shows a record decline in openings. Job Openings On the last business day of August,...
In Huge Contrast to ISM, S&P Services PMI Has Second-Worst Quarter Since 2009 – Mish Talk
The S&P, formerly Markit, reports Business Activity Declines at Slower Pace. US service providers signalled a much slower contraction in business activity during September, according...
“No Recession” Idea Based On GDI Was Just Revised Out the Window – Mish Talk
Real GDP, Real Final Sales, and Real GDI data from BEA, chart by Mish Understanding GDP vs GDI There are two measures of the economy...
What Percentage of The August Blowout New Home Sales Will Never Close? – Mish Talk
New home sales data from commerce department, chart by Mish. On September 27, I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August...
It’s Our Dollar But Your Problem, 2022 Style – Mish Talk
Total credit market now exceeds 90 trillion dollars. Flashback November 1971 John Connally, President Nixon’s Treasury Secretary, bluntly told a group of European finance minsters...
Do Tight Labor Market Conditions Keep Core Inflation Sticky? – Mish Talk
CPI components as of August 2022. Chart by Mish. Core CPI is defined as everything but food and energy. Here’s the set of claims I...
GDPNow Forecast for 2022 Q3 Barely Positive Despite New Home Sales Surprise – Mish Talk
Please consider the September 20 update to the GDPNow Forecast for Q3 GDP. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate)...
Strong Dollar Fatigue: Japan’s Yen Intervention Will Not Work. How Can It? – Mish Talk
Image from Tweet below. “What it looks like when a big central bank steps into an FX market. The Bank of Japan draws a line...