Retail Sales Look Strong But Fail to Keep Up With Soaring Inflation – Mish Talk
Nominal retail sales from commerce department, real (inflation-adjusted) sales by Mish.
The Census Department reports Advance Retail Sales rose 1.0 percent in June.
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $680.6 billion.
- Sales increased of 1.0 percent from the previous month, and 8.4 percent above June 2021.
- Total sales for the April 2022 through June 2022 period were up 8.1 percent from the same period a year ago.
- The April 2022 to May 2022 percent change was revised from down 0.3 percent to down 0.1 percent.
- Retail trade sales were up 1.0 percent from May 2022, and up 7.7 percent above last year.
- Gasoline stations were up 49.1 percent from June 2021.
- Food services and drinking places were up 13.4 percent from last year.
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Detail
Nominal retail sales from commerce department, real (inflation-adjusted) sales by Mish.
Chart Notes
- Real retail sales peaked 15 months ago in March of 2021.
- That’s when the third and most irresponsible round of fiscal stimulus free money checks were sent.
- Since March of 2021, nominal sales are up 8.8 percent.
- Since March of 2021, real sales are down 2.4 percent.
Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Details Part 1
Nominal retail sales month-over-month
Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Details Part 2
Nominal retail sales month-over-month
Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Details
- Total: 1.0%
- Gas Stations: 3.6%
- Nonstore: 2.2%
- Motor Vehicles: 0.8%
- Food Service: 1.0%
- Department Stores: -2.6%
- General Merchandise: -0.2%
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: 1.0%
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.7%
CPI Month-Over-Month
Scroll to Continue
CPI data from BLS, chart by Mish
Comparisons
- The CPI rose 1.3 percent in June.
- Gasoline sales rose 3.6 percent and nonstore sales (think Amazon) rose 2.2 percent.
- Gasoline and nonstore sales were the only advance sales categories to rise more than the CPI.
Gasoline is hardly surprising.
Nonstore offsets a department store decline of 2.2% and a general merchandise decline of 0.2 percent.
The nonstore rise may also be related to consumers avoiding driving whenever possible.
Consumer Price Index Jumps Another 1.3 Percent, Much More Than Than Expected
For more on the CPI, please see Consumer Price Index Jumps Another 1.3 Percent, Much More Than Than Expected
And No Matter What’s in Your Food Basket, the Price Keeps Rising Fast
Finally, A Big Housing Bust is the Key to Understanding This Recession
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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