MBA Mortgage Applications Rise 3.2% From Previous Week, But Purchase Applications Down 38% From Same Week Last Year As Fed Tightens – Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders

Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022.

The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 38 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

You can see the impact of seasonalilty on mortgage purchase applications (white line). They peaked in the week of May 6, 2022 and have been generally declining since. While refi applications (orange line) increased over the past week, they have been pummelled by The Fed tightening.

It is quiet today as investors wait for The Fed to announce a 50 basis point rate increase. Fed Funds Futures point to almost another 100 basis point hike by May 5, 2023, then a slow decline in The Fed Funds target rate (upper bound).