Government Accounts for Nearly 25 Percent of All Job Gains in 2023 – MishTalk

The following image explains how government jobs temporarily kept the economy from falling apart and the unemployment rate low this year.

Government jobs have been on fire the entire year.

The total job gains so far in 2023 is 2.552 million. Government jobs account for 636,000 of them!

Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded. Employees of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency also are excluded. Postal Services are included.

Annual Change in Gov’t Jobs

636,000 / 2.552 million is 24.92 percent of all jobs gains this year. 

Chart Notes

• When government jobs account for more than 10 percent of all jobs, the economy is nearing recession.
• The last time we saw government jobs account for 25 percent of the total was right before the Great Recession
• Headed into the Covid recession, government jobs were 10.82 percent of the total.
• Headed into the 2001 recession, we had two years of government percentages at 14.49 percent and 13.62 percent.
• To avoid weird looking negative percentages in years where nonfarm payrolls declined I set the numbers to zero.
• The green highlights are years when government hobs declined but overall payrolls increased.

Surging government jobs is sure to raise questions about the Inflation Reduction act authoring $80 billion for IRS reforms including IRS agents, but most of these gains are at the state level.

Of the 636,000 increase in government jobs, only 79,000 were at the federal level, with exclusions as noted above.

BLS Jobs Report Stronger than ADP, Fueled in Part by End of UAW Strike

On Friday, I reported BLS Jobs Report Stronger than ADP, Fueled in Part by End of UAW Strike

In retrospect, a far better headline would read, “… fueled in part by a stunning increase in government jobs for the entire year.”

In case you missed it, please see How Much Did the Huge 412,000 Birth-Death Adjustment Impact October’s Job Report?

How the BLS calculates jobs created in the birth and death of businesses is an amazing exercise in and of itself.

If You Lose a Job, It’s Getting Harder to Find a New One

Finally, If You Lose a Job, It’s Getting Harder to Find a New One

Correction

I revised the lead sentence to “The following image explains how government jobs temporarily kept the economy from falling apart and the unemployment rate low this year.”

The economy certainly isn’t “humming” as I originally typed.